E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5989.50, up 42.75 on Friday and down 37.50 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 21,516.50, up 349.00 on Friday and down 182.00 on the week

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are higher and padding a strong finish to the second trading day of the year. Friday morning, we noted weakness had helped round out the market profile by testing into the gap from November 5th on heavy volume, while deteriorating breadth was likely hitting an exhaustion point. We were also optimistic that leadership was attempting to show up from the Mag 7. Price action was very firm overnight but legged higher this morning on a Washington Post article that highlighted a less aggressive approach by President Trump in only implementing tariffs on certain sectors critical to national or economic security. In reaction, the U.S. Dollar is off by 1%, falling to the December 31st lows, and round-tripping the end of year bullish flow melt higher.

Today’s volatility is a reminder on the sharp ebbs and flows from headlines and President Trump himself that we must navigate moving forward.

Given the higher price action ahead of the opening bell, it goes unsaid that we now have a line in the sand at Friday’s settlement prices, and a reversal that takes this out would be extremely negative. On the positive side, E-mini S&P futures surged through key resistance at the 6003-6008.25 area and sticking its head above the critical rare major four-star level at 6027, aligning with the gap settlement from Friday December 27th. Our view here is that a close above this mark paints a path of least resistance to the gap settlement from December 26th and rare major four-star resistance at…

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