E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5861.50, up 15.50

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,497.00, down 1.75

Price action across equity indices has been more or less subdued since Friday’s early exuberance. Traders are navigating E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures, acknowledging both the currently elevated level and the high probability of a strong finish to the year. In reality, market gyrations and a healthy pullback, at the least, are likely, but from what level? Opportunity will be found between now and then. A gauntlet of economic data is faced this week before the U.S. Presidential Election next week. First up is a slate of Home Price data at 8:00 a.m. CT, followed by CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS at 9:00 a.m. CT. Updated Atlanta Fed GDP Now projections are due this afternoon, along with a 7-year Note auction at noon CT.

We held a more Bullish Bias last week, expecting a gasp for air and a retest of 5900 in the E-mini S&P, at minimum. Like clockwork, a sharp pullback unfolded upon such Friday morning, and we have reduced our Bias to Neutral. The stronger open Sunday night and tape through yesterday left a gap in the E-mini S&P at Friday’s settlement of 5846, which provides the first wave of major three-star support. Below that, the bulls have defended last week’s low settlement which aligns for major three-star support at 5835-5837.75. Although we have significant support even below there, a break of range from Friday is likely to create a heavier tape. Tech and the E-mini NQ have shown leadership, and this will place a significant emphasis on major three-star support at…

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